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by 0xc0c0c0 17 days ago
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
1 comments

Market is _never_ rational. If market followed rational logic, you could pre-calculate which stocks will be what price and never lose money.

(Stock) market is, by definition, irrational. If you are scared of solvency, sell and hold money and/or gold.

> If market followed rational logic, you could pre-calculate which stocks will be what price and never lose money.

The fundamentals are unpredictable, so even a perfectly rational planning (suppose such thing could exist) would lose money sometimes. Not in the long run, but long run doesn't matter if a single wrecked ship can wreck you.

How?

If you don't believe in ai/nv etc, just invest in things unrelated. When the "ai circular bubble" bursts, you'll be rich!!

Invest in the companies you believe in. Invest long term. Don't cry about bubbles if you're an ETF-Chicken.

By starving off access to cheap DRAM for everything that isn't AI?
"(Stock) market is, by definition, irrational"

I assume this is just your definition?

Is weather irrational, because you cannot calculate it?

Markets and weather are just too complex with too many unknowns to calculate it.

You're just being pedantic. To a sufficient advanced being (eg God), the whole universe is rational/calculable/etc. Are you the type who says "you're wrong! It's 9:01" when someone says it's 9?