[plorkyeran]

He made specific predictions about what problems AI would cause, not just a vague "AI will be dangerous". Those specific predictions were entirely incorrect; they both said that things would happen that didn't, and failed to foresee any of the actual problems with AI that have happened.

[johnfn]

Yudkowsky said AI would be a problem when very few people taken seriously in the mainstream were saying it was going to be a problem. Saying "specific predictions are wrong" is missing the forest for the trees here.

[plorkyeran]

To strain the metaphor, there's no trees! Yudkowsky predicted that there'd be a forest but it's actually grassland and you're saying that he's right because there's plants. AI has not developed in even slightly the way he claimed it would develop, none of the problems he said AI would cause have happened, and a bunch of things he never even thought of have happened.

People pushed back against his AI doom claims not because the idea that AI could be bad was unthinkable (just look at literally every SF story from the last 50 years featuring AI?), but because he specifically was worried about AI becoming God. That is no closer to happening than it was 30 years ago.

[johnfn]

I mean I think I agree with most of what you’re saying, I do agree it’s a bit of a forest grasslands scenario, but the key difference is that he said there’d be a forest at a time when you’d be hard pressed to find someone saying there would be even a microorganism on the ground. It’s pretty darn easy today in 2026 to say wow, his predictions were so off. And it is true: they are very wrong compared to any other prediction made in the last 5 years. But few people were saying this stuff in 2008.