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by ToValueFunfetti 17 days ago
This seems out of line with what you were saying above. Do you mean you would put money on a position less favorable than 50/50? What do you consider the likelihood such that you think you can announce it to be false today? 99%? I'd happily offer 30 to 1 odds on this today and add a 3x buffer for you up to $1000 of my dollars if you're serious.
1 comments
bwanab 15 days ago
I'm confused. In the original comment I pointed out that the article claims AI is a major topic when polls show that isn't the case. I still believe that in 2028 AI will not be a major topic as shown by polls and voting behavior.

I'm not sure how I'd formulate the bet, but maybe it could be "as of election day 2028, AI will not be a top five concern mentioned in the most recent open-ended poll by Gallup polling the American public. This bet will not be decided by a poll in which AI is specifically mentioned in the polling question."

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ToValueFunfetti 14 days ago
Not clear on where you're confused. The article does not claim this is the state today, it says in 2028- did you misread? In any event I think this is entirely plausible, say >9%, based on trendlines and the fact that I hear about this constantly already- two of the candidates in my primary had a position on this and I'm not exactly in SF. I'm prepared to hand you as much as $1k in the 91% of worlds where this doesn't happen in exchange for 30x as much (eg. 30k) in the 9% of worlds where it does. EV for me is .91 * -1 + .09 * 30 = +1.79. You claim you can say already today that this is false; I assume that means you're >99% certain. EV for you is then .99 * 1 + .01 * -30 = +0.69 (nice). Thus there is a mutually beneficial trade at the >3x your position and <1/3x my position point, and I offer 30:1 odds. I don't care if this is a nominal one of my dollars to thirty of yours, $1k is just my limit.

I don't normally do this, but you brought up your willingness to bet so I figured I'd offer.

I didn't think it was possible you misread- you had like 5 replies calling this out, but I recall them being gray and maybe you have showdead disabled- but don't feel obliged to commit if your real probability is 97% for this.

This term:

>This bet will not be decided by a poll in which AI is specifically mentioned in the polling question.

I cannot honor. In the >9% of worlds where you are wrong, any poll that excludes AI is necessarily heavily biased against me. Better to pick a particular poll.

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