[zdragnar]

Fable 5 doesn't represent anything new, other than scale and some refinement techniques, over the original LLMs. In the chase for AGI specifically, LLMs are a dead end, just like all the other AI technologies that died in the AI winter.

What priors should be updated?

[0xDEAFBEAD]

>Fable 5 doesn't represent anything new, other than scale and some refinement techniques, over the original LLMs.

Yet it is generating billions in revenue which Eliza did not.

Perhaps all we need is scale and some refinement techniques to eat a big fraction of the economy.

If unimpressive inputs lead to impressive outputs, that should make you more worried, not less.

[zdragnar]

The commercial viability is orthogonal to whether it achieves AGI, which is effectively what "reproducing the human brain" amounts to in this discussion.

[azan_]

What's your definition of AGI?

[m4rtink]

And possibly trilions in running costs, not mentioning all the shady training data sources.

[dwaltrip]

Strong disagree. Fable is first model that actually feels smarter than me in certain non-trivial ways.

It can hold many complex and partially contradictory thoughts in its head at once, in a way that feels significantly superior to Opus (for example). And then can make reasonable syntheses across these.

In a couple rounds of back and forth, with relatively low effort (but strategic) prompting, it produces complex, accurate analyses in 5-10 minutes that would take me multiple hours of hard, very focused work.

I still need to remain tightly in the loop, providing frequent course correction, clarification, high level reframing, nudging, and grounding.

It incorporates my feedback incredibly well.

It’s honestly staggering. Fable has changed my assessment of the current trajectory more than any model since possibly gpt-4. Opus 4.5 of last year might be a close second.

———

My advice for anyone who wants to get more value out of these tools:

When a model does something idiotic, don’t throw your hands up in the air. Be curious. Try to turn it into a puzzle to be solved.

It know it’s hard sometimes, especially if you are drowning in slop from other people… or generated by yourself, heh.

It can be exhausting. I struggle with this also. I have thoughts on how to make it better. We shall see.

[layla5alive]

Human brain looks a lot like scale and minor refinement above dog brain. Or mouse brain.