[BurningFrog]

> Nor do I think a 74% unemployment rate is even remotely possible

250 years of constant automation has never produced large scale unemployment, despite obsoleting everyone's jobs several times over.

[tired-turtle]

Don’t you think the speed at which obsolescence occurs matters? There’s a bit of survivorship bias here, in the sense of

“I’ve been pulling my sled across this lake for 50 winters even when the temperature went above freezing. Never fell through!”

[fulafel]

It has. For example mechanization of argiculture in places where it didnt coincide with a manufacturing boom (latin america, india, africa) resulted in shantytowns and long term unemployment.

[BurningFrog]

Those are pretty dysfunctional economical and political systems.

In the industrialized world, old professions disappear all the time, and are replaced with new ones. I saw somewhere that it's about 2% per year.

[fulafel]

In a post-AGI scenario, a tech booster POV could be seeing the left behind parts of the populace the same way.