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by budsniffer952 19 days ago
Hilarious. You realize the US could nuke and flatten Iran tomorrow, right? Do you imagine that Trump was trying to conquer Iran and just couldn't do it with all the American military power? There is no scenario that Iran wins a war with the USA.

They were trying to overthrow the regime, for the second time in a year, and failed.
4 comments
ExoticPearTree 19 days ago
> There is no scenario that Iran wins a war with the USA.

It actually depends on what the you the outcome of the war to be: total conquest or regime change.

The US can probably achieve total conquest, but not regime change. They spent 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and left there without winning anything, especially in Afghanistan. If they wanted to erase Iraq and Afghanistan, that would have a been a totally different thing.

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n4r9 19 days ago
As with many modern wars, it's hard to say whether the Iraq war was won or lost, because the goals are difficult to discern.
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ExoticPearTree 19 days ago
The internet never forgets: you go and find the first speech about why the war was started and look at the outcome. You can then judge for yourself if the war was won or lost. Obviously with all its nuances.
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n4r9 18 days ago
Speeches only show projected intent.
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jandrese 19 days ago
> There is no scenario that Iran wins a war with the USA.

My god man, Vietnam vets are still alive. You can talk with them today. There is no reason to forget all of the lessons of the past.

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wvh 19 days ago
If the US would truly try to raze Iran, they would do so at immense cost, both financially and reputationally.

I have to wonder what your definition of "winning" is.

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marcus_holmes 16 days ago
Iran has already won the war. There is no scenario that the USA comes out of this situation in a better place than it was before the war started.
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ericmay 12 days ago
By that logic Iran has lost the war too, because they can't possibly come out of this situation in a better place than before the war started, which really was back in October 2022.

Since then Iran's economy has been crushed, government was decapitated (and could be again at a time and place of our choosing), they face a naval blockade that prevents them from selling oil, their military was drastically reduced in size and capability by American bombing, they've made their fellow Arabs in the region very, very angry, and they've come to see that both China and Russia (don't forget, Iran sells drones to Russia to kill Ukrainians) were powerless to come to its aid. Their nuclear program is at best on pause.

Now we can sprinkle in that they've depleted a lot of their munitions, and both Hamas and Hezbollah were nearly destroyed and have become shells of their former selves, resorting to hiding behind children and attacking UN aid convoys.

Just in case you thought Iran was somehow coming out of this situation better than before, the above shows that is unequivocally false.

But hey, yea the US "lost the war".

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marcus_holmes 1 day ago
The war did not start in 2022, it started in February 2026.

There were no clear objectives when the war started, but the Trump administration has waffled since about:

Regime change - hasn't happened. The current regime is still running the country.

The end of the assumed nuclear program - hasn't happened.

Destruction of Iran's military - hasn't happened. Iran is still sending drone strikes against US bases in neighbouring countries.

and more recently, opening the Hormuz Strait to commercial shipping - hasn't happened.

Not a single identified US objective in the war has been achieved, and the USA has lost massive respect from the rest of the world because it has been unable to achieve any of its objectives against a third-rate country. It has also drained its interceptor reserves in a way that might have material effect on future conflicts (e.g. Taiwan)

As for Iran, it didn't start the war so it doesn't get a checklist of objectives. However:

Iran is selling oil that it was previously unable to because of sanctions. The on-again-off-again US blockade of the strait isn't really affecting this.

The regime has a much tighter grip on power than it had pre-war, there are no mass demonstrations and it is not shooting its own civilians any more

It has confirmed control over the Hormuz strait and looks likely to be able to charge tolls in the future.

It has seen the Middle East pull away from the USA and pull together, a strategic benefit for it.

There is no reading of this war that makes the USA look good here. It was a mistake in the first place and it's been a colossal cock-up ever since.

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