[danaris]

> This assumes that there aren't algorithmic breakthroughs which reduce training/inference costs by several OOMs.

Of course it does.

You cannot operate based on the assumption that you will hit a breakthrough in any given span of time. Breakthroughs are, by their very nature, unpredictable—both on when you will reach them, and on whether they exist to reach at all.

It's also assuming that there isn't a hardware breakthrough that will put us another several OOMs ahead on compute.

It's also assuming that there isn't a military "breakthrough" that leaves all our supply lines either bombed or hostile to us.

When you're forecasting, you can only operate based on what is known and knowable now.

Breakthroughs are unknowable. You cannot rely on them.