| There’s something of a footnote in here that - raises a moral or even spiritual question. Scott says that one of the great things about superforcasters is that some people who regularly make bad decisions will be able to make better decisions by asking superforcasters questions like “Is this marriage likely to end in divorce.” And there’s a number of profound questions in here about - what are we all here for? There’s something of a philosophical horseshoe theory here which is like - I might argue - this sounds like astrology or other metaphysical forms of divination. And the counter argument would be something like - no it’s completely different because this is true. Which is of course what all the spiritual traditions say about each other. So it begs the question - is it the solution or the process. Is using a super forecaster better because it’s “real”; or like I think I could make the argument it’s worse for that reason. Asking your grandmother or spiritual advisor is part of a process of existence. You ask multiple people, you have the experience, maybe you marry the wrong person, you learn and you grow. But when you outsource that decision making. |