[vidarh]

A market segment that makes up a smaller and smaller proportion of the market goes nuts for the iPhone.

That means that carriers have less and less incentive to care about whether or not Apple walks away from the negotiating table if they ask for lower prices.

Apple will still have the diehard fans who are willing to buy unsubsidised directly, if the iPhone market share dips low enough that carriers see the iPhone as optional enough that they feel they can afford to lose it, Apple will have to choose reductions in sales or lower prices.