[mikgp]

> How much do these models need to do before people throw their hands in the air and say, ok this is happening.

It's quite interesting to me that your epistemology is basically "God in a box is inevitable" and not skepticism.

> Now if you have millions of instances running in parallel, all "probabilistic", working on frontier AI research I really don't see the blocker (and believe me I wish I did).

The blocker is lots of things, but for one? Compute. Millions of instances running parallel, all "probabilistic" testing different theories would require million of GPU clusters.

Two? For subjects like Physics - Atoms. You need to be able to run experiments. You need access to the real world.

Then there's the S curve. Algorithmic breakthroughs operate on orders of magnitude. Eventually we'll run out.

etc. et al.