[chucksmash]

Any given trade also has a capacity. A mispricing opportunity can only absorb so much investment before it's no longer mispriced.

A particular trade that can 2x $20k won't be able to do the same for $20 billion.

It's why RenTech capped their Medallion Fund and closed it to outside investment.

If there's only a billion dollars sloshing around on Kalshi, you can't expect to put $1 trillion into bets and take $2 trillion out.

[danaris]

But if these "superforecasters" can forecast just about anything accurately—which seems to be the claim—then they're not limited to any one claim, or even a small subset of them. They can place bets on everything and expect to win most of the time.

This doesn't pass the smell test.

[kennywinker]

Stock market’s got plenty to spare