[simianwords]

What a strange and scoldy thing to say. I find speaking in terms of concretere predictions the best way to discuss things. It bypasses hyper moralists and scoldy type of people (your post reminds me of such) and directly jumps to truth.

[breuleux]

I don't think there's good evidence that it directly jumps to truth. The aim of betting on a prediction market is to earn money. This incentivizes you to bet on whatever you believe is the most profitable, which is disproportionately going to be whatever you have insider information about, whatever you can influence the outcome of, and whatever you can most effectively fool other people into taking the wrong side of.