[gwern]

You're attacking a strawman. No one is claiming that you can pull off that multiplier at arbitrary amounts arbitrary amounts of times. And 7 months is plenty of calendar time for those arbitrages to disappear, given the attention on the area and the rapid rate of development. (Warren Buffett can't pull off his early trades now either, doesn't mean he was stupid or grifting in taking early investment.)

[kennywinker]

So you agree this stuff isn’t useful?

[gwern]

Wow, I obviously do not agree with that, and since you're trying to put words in my mouth and false dichotomies, I think that's the last question of yours I will be answering.

[kennywinker]

I was specifically responding to your comment by pointing out that you’re describing something that is valuable now but will be of less and less value as the market adapts. If you think that’s a good investment, that’s your business, of course.