[nylonstrung]

In reality, VC is probably the most threatened because value and investment dollars have increasingly accrued to large public companies and a handful of a growth companies, the power law has never been stronger and returns never more stratified.

You can't just build a fund throwing out money at Seed and Series A SaaS companies anymore, more than ever company spend is going towards a few AI providers as "buy vs build" shifts in the opposite direction than before

And additionally you could argue that LLM coding is replacing the need for much of pre-Seed and Seed money that would go towards hiring the first 1-3 engineers and MVP development

[bko]

The value accrues to much later stages. The odds of a 10x used to diminish after the early rounds. Idds that a $100bn valuation goes to $1t are now higher than a $100m gets to $1bn

But VCs note this and they just move up the stack so it's mostly fine.

The thing that VCs have to contend with primarily is not so much throwing money at random seed or series A companies, but managing conflicts. They can't invest indiscriminately and generally have to pick a winner to back in each category. It's probably more relevant at the early stage, but it's very frowned upon by founders if their investor also invests in their competitors. And at the end of the day, VCs have to convince the hottest companies to take their money, and most companies would object.