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by tsunamifury 22 days ago
We are reaching a new post-rational or neu-rational stage of our society which i think many HNers and educated people will find deeply uncomfortable

The difficult truth is that as we've engeineered our society over the last 50 years into more and more deterministic outcomes, and began to assign morality itself TO determinism. Where in we've reached a point where when we must face that life is probablistic (i.e. gambling) we assign that space a moral evil

As a person who is deeply entrenched in this way of thinking I find gambing uncomforatable, but when we invented the core AI technology of prediction systems at Google that power LLM tech today, 'gambling' on probablistic outcomes at a super short term and long term level is questining the determinism of life itself.

Gambling is a collective signal on cohort outcomes and wisdom of crowds, which becomes training data itself for long/high dimensional-vectors required to fuel intelligence.

In other words, it turns out EVERYTHING is gambling, some things just have better odds than others, and most of those better odds choices come from OHTERS gambling to make those odds better for you.

Humanity moving forward out of this trap of high odds probability gravity wells and growing as a species will involve a lot of gambling i suspect.

2 comments

Personally I see nothing wrong with prediction markets, so it feels weird to see people around here freak about it as if it was the antichrist put in place by <current politicians they don't like>.
I did a startup with one back in 2008... it resulted in some bizarre outcomes

https://www.computerworld.com/article/1584145/idg-revives-th...

1) Winners could influence future outcomes. 2) The more they won the more they could influence outcomes.

This seems to be a pretty good mirror of today's society no?

Wow this is a very weird way to mash a bunch of principles and ideas together to sound smart, but not actually say anything.
Whenever I see a comment like this I think… is this a person who is just incapable of admitting they don’t understand something.

This isn’t a hard concept. Life is highly indeterministic. But we’ve assigned moralism falsely to your ability to make it seem more deterministic than it is. Jeeze my guy. Think.