[QuantumGood]

Causes create effects and eventually exist in a field of those effects. Kramnik was rapidly informed of statistical issues with his approaches in easy-to-understand ways (and also in technical detail). His "convincing for a layman" needs to be noted as "not convincing to himself after becoming more informed". So part of the issue is why he continued to pretend, either or both to himself or to others that his method was useful.

Chief chess.com officer IM Danny Rensch, among others, explained how Kramnik’s theories about how unlikely various streak lengths were were completely wrong with easy to understand detail.

Kramnik: “This guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about”.