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by jenniferhooley
28 days ago
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Oh, you think we are going to have another breakthrough in artificial intelligence rivaling the one we had in 2022 this year or next?
What research or studies lead you to believe this? Could I see one? I haven't personally seen the research leading me to believe there's a massive new intelligence breakthrough on the horizon but maybe I missed it! As to the current version - I use AI constantly, as in 12 hours a day 7 days a week specifically for high-end game development. It is currently so far from the 2027 prediction that it's hilarious if you think a little incremental improvement (e.g., like from opus 4.6 to Fable) is going to bring us there. |
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maybe; I meant "in a single year eventually", not this year necessarily
> what research
transformers were published in 2017, and nobody anticipated agentic coding back then; but if I had to guess:
1. lean self play as in https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.00212 and https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.13473
2. "recursive self improvement"/autoresearch
even basic stuff like coding agents removes a major bottleneck -- when finding relevant literature and turning an idea into code takes as much time as writing it down in your notes, researchers from top tier labs can test every single hypothesis they can come up with
> hilarious
"oneshot a PoC -> oneshot a production ready game" improvement sounds like something that will eventually be done in a 1kloc diff in the RL pipeline
IMHO: "genuinely good" might never happen though because of all the non-coding stuff -- you can't really benchmaxx when the target is defined as "pleasant to humans"