We comprehend, but these "scaling laws" have been in effect for less than a decade (and they're more historical observations over a very short period than actual laws), and while some technologies progress exponentially for some amount of time, the complexity of some computational problems grows exponentially forever. For example, if computational resources double every year, it may still be five centuries before some computational problems can become practically computable. It is mathematically proven that no amount of intelligence can compensate for resources, and even if exponential growth could be sustained for a long time, and that's a big if, an exponential curve still grows slowly at the beginning.
For example, suppose AI helps us figure out a way to exploit much more of the sun's energy. Accomplishing that necessary preliminary can, on its own, take many decades, and if we split our efforts among multiple approaches, it may take longer. Intelligence can't break the actual laws of mathematics or of physics. And that's before we consider things like how resources will be allocated when AI tells people that man-made climate change and transgenderism are real.
This generation of AI hasn't even hit its first crisis. Assuming there will be none is like settlers assuming their town will never suffer a major earthquake because they haven't had one in five years.
Of course, improvements in problems that may not grow exponentially also matter a great deal, but there are too many unknowns (look at how many unknowns there are around quantum computing).
For example, suppose AI helps us figure out a way to exploit much more of the sun's energy. Accomplishing that necessary preliminary can, on its own, take many decades, and if we split our efforts among multiple approaches, it may take longer. Intelligence can't break the actual laws of mathematics or of physics. And that's before we consider things like how resources will be allocated when AI tells people that man-made climate change and transgenderism are real.
This generation of AI hasn't even hit its first crisis. Assuming there will be none is like settlers assuming their town will never suffer a major earthquake because they haven't had one in five years.
Of course, improvements in problems that may not grow exponentially also matter a great deal, but there are too many unknowns (look at how many unknowns there are around quantum computing).