| I sat in a meeting 7 weeks ago where senior leaders said they expect token prices to drop significantly over the next 6 months, and we should all be using as much AI as possible; our team goal was set to use more tokens. This week, we are banned from using anything more expensive than opus 4.6 and encouraged to use sonnet (but not sonnet 5! Thats expensive!) or lower for daily tasks to help manage costs. Weeks ago, they gave exactly the same justification as you just gave; and it makes sense! …but maybe not over the next 6 months. > Maybe not over the next 18-24 months Maybe not. Probably not, I guess. A lot of money has been invested on the expectation that the current gen of hardware is going to reap a colossal profit, and the capex to replace it, is vanishing into investor skepticism as we speak. It seems like most people have a very very low ability to forecast long horizon change in the current environment, but, in general… it seems like until demand drops, the chances of prices dropping is dubious; at best we get a price war with chinese models or a bubble pop; and even then, there are plenty of startups lurking to snap up cheap hardware. For individuals, the horizon for buying cheap AI capable compute doesn’t seem close, at all, to me. |