[mwcampbell]

> once the RAM bottleneck passes

Do we have evidence that this will actually happen? Maybe the belief that it won't pass is what requires evidence, but I think there's a widespread feeling right now that things are just getting permanently worse and this is one example.

[justincormack]

Micron have sold RAM for the next 4 years at current prices, so there are buyers expecting this to stay the same.

[api]

That means buyers have basically purchased options. If the price falls, they're underwater a little, but if the price spikes it protects them.

People do that all the time, and sometimes it doesn't pay off.

[api]

It'll probably take a few years. There's many fabs under construction.

One thing holding back capacity expansion is that a lot of people are concerned this is a bubble. They're worried it'll pop and leave them with orphaned assets if they over-invest in production.

Of course maybe they're right and that will happen. If the data center construction boom ends, RAM prices will fall.