[bilater]

At least I have trends backing up my claim. What precedent is there for saying, "Yeah, AI has kept getting better, and keeps doing things that we thought it would never be able to do, but now I think it’s going to plateau because I just can’t see the model writing good poetry or being smart enough to make determinsitic tool calls" or whatever?

[skydhash]

Most people are not against AI getting better per se. They’re about AI boosters not able to prove their outlandish claims.

We’ve seen a lot of claims over the years substituting one metric (amount of code written) for another (useful code produced) to justify that AI are getting “better”. We just want a proper definition of better.

[Capricorn2481]

> At least I have trends backing up my claim

No, you don't have trends backing your claims that we are going to add 10,000 IQ points to the average person. Anymore than the S&P 500 is going to 100x in a decade years.

[apsurd]

it doesn’t have to be that deep or specific.

all things decay on a curve. pretty much all things in life are not modeled by a straight line.

so you’re saying no theres still more UP. sure, but that’s a tale as old as time. when where and how much in how long is the reality piece.

[bilater]

The line is not just AI. It’s our whole story. You can extrapolate it to Moore’s law, automation, agriculture, and so on. And there's no decay. It's just perception.

We are already in the singularity. We’ve always been. It just gets faster at each step.

[apsurd]

I've read Sapiens. And I liked it. It's very insightful. But that perception is a perception so I don't understand the distinction you're making.

Human advancement is a story we tell ourselves. Agree. That it in any way looks like a straight line is just not true. If nothing else, it looks coherent after the fact... because it's an extremely lossy story our limited brains can comprehend. But it's not reality. No entity in the known Universe "comprehends" the march of progress. They weren't there when it started. So I just don't know what we're talking about anymore.

[rpdillon]

We still have far to go. You can tell by the pace if improvement in so many dimensions. If the popcorn's popping had started slowing down, I might believe you, but instead it's speeding up.