[sanderjd]

Yeah reading this timeline wasn't satisfying to me for exactly this reason: It didn't give the counterarguments that were being made at the time of each "goalpost".

My (probably flawed, but still) memory is that the first one of these threads I participated in, at the end of 2022, was saying that none of us would have jobs after two more years of development of these models. Two years from then was almost two years ago now, and we're still "a year or two" out.

On the flip side, the thesis that these will be useful tools that will augment the work of software developers when understood and used for the things they are good at has (IMO) remained undefeated during this entire period.

[senordevnyc]

It’s true that AI hasn’t replaced us all in the last few years, but it’s completely changed software engineering, and honestly a LOT of that change has been in the last nine months or so. And it’s supposedly destroyed the market for juniors.

In the grand sweep of history, does it really matter if AI takes two years to replace us or ten years to replace us?

[sanderjd]

This is true, and it's also true that both boosters and doomers have consistently made incorrect predictions about the timeline.