[emsign]

Excess AI capacity? Huh? Wait a minute does that mean they've built more data centers than there's demand for? Oh! How did that happen? Well, I'm a complete idiot, a layman, not even a developer, what do I know about economics and technology...

[ianm218]

It’s a hard thing to measure right? Google under bet on demand for their AI infra and left lots of money on the table with Anthropic/ has to buy computer from SpaceX for awhile, Meta over built.

[jgalt212]

> Meta over built.

In retrospect, this seems pretty easy for Meta to have done as heretofore they were a single captive customer AI shop.

[ianm218]

Even then though at their scale - billions of DAU with pretty elite consumer distribution in terms of InstaGram and WhatsApp the future is hard to predict.

Like they have much lower cost of capital than OpenAI or Anthropic for example and far more direct to consumer muscle, if they could've gotten their models into a better position it's very possible they could've beaten out OpenAI on consumer AI. Probably a smaller prize to win than B2B AI but still huge.

And then if the case where AI is panning out but they are failing to execute (where we appear to be now) they have the option of becoming a SpaceX style NeoCloud that is pretty solid, even though most of their moves were pretty bad along the way.