[alephnerd]

> Europe could offer China a lot to tip the balance

> Any kind of russian success does not serve China in any capacity

That's not what the Chinese policymakers think [0][1].

They view the EU as a has-been that thinks it's a global power but lacks the technology or capability to become one [2].

On the other hand, Russia helps China put pressure on Japan [3], South Korea [4], Central Asia [5], backchannel with India [6], allows China to bypass Hormuz [7], and is transferring military IP to China [8].

Even China's foreign minister Wang Yi told Kaja Kallas this point blank [9] and even the Polish policymaking space recognizes this [10].

[0] - https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/_t2515/57/f8/c21257a743416/page.ht...

[1] - https://ies.cass.cn/cn/work/comment/202206/t20220601_5410899...

[2] - https://www.ccpit.org/france/a/20260623/20260623vb86.html

[3] - https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-b...

[4] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqxq38028djo

[5] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china-looks-strengthen-ties-ru...

[6] - https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/10/23/how-russia-emerged-as-k...

[7] - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3345920/m...

[8] - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme...

[9] - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/ch...

[10] - https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2025-01-...

[scotty79]

> They view the EU as a has-been that thinks it's a global power but lacks the technology or capability to become one

Which is spot on. That's why Europe should do everything in their power to facilitate technology sharing.

[alephnerd]

And China is not interested in doing so with European states let alone other countries.

Heck, the PRC just passed legislation that all technology transfers outside of China need final approval from the central government [0].

And as I pointed out above but you ignored, China does not view the EU as an equal nor as a potential partner. They just like the US are more interested in bilateral relations with individual states that are pliable to them instead of the supranational EU.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-toughens-ru...

[scotty79]

China is super interested in spreading their influence using market means. They'd happily set up shop in Europe. And when the shop is set up in a foreign land the technology spreads naturally as US learned with China.

[alephnerd]

> China is super interested in spreading their influence using market means

Not if it means giving up IP and knowhow to partners - hence Chinese government policy shifts to enact mass export controls [0] out of national security concerns

> And when the shop is set up in a foreign land the technology spreads naturally as US learned with China

The US along with allies like South Korea, Japan, and West Germany transferred IP to China in the 1980s to 2000s which helped build their capacity in industries like automotive (VW-SAIC) and battery tech (BYD-Samsung, CATL-TDK).

China has changed it's regulations to prevent domestic players and foreign businesses operating in China from transferring know-how out of China, as was seen with the export controls China put on Apple and BYD suppliers [1] shifting to India and ASEAN.

----

As I have pointed to you with sources

1. China has significant disdain for Europe

2. China has significant strategic linkages with Russia that cannot be broken

3. China is actively clamping down on IP and technology transfers leaving China

China - just like the US - is uninterested in negotiating with the EU as equals nor in providing it capabilities for technological self sufficiency.

[0] - https://m.guancha.cn/politics/2026_06_02_819137.shtml

[1] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-17/china-mov...

[scotty79]

> Not if it means giving up IP and knowhow to partners

Was US interested in that? These things just happen when you do business. And don't happen as much if you don't.

> Chinese government policy shifts to enact mass export controls out of national security concerns.

Gee, I wonder who they got those silly ideas from. How well is that working for the country who came up with this first?

> The US along with allies like South Korea, Japan, and West Germany transferred IP to China in the 1980s to 2000s

Out of sheer goodness of their hearts, I'm sure. No, you just can't exploit someone efficiently, without sharing at least some of what you know. That's just what's needed and what happens when you do this kind of business.

Getting exploited in this fashion brought China tremendous advantage. Europe should follow this path.

> China - just like the US - is uninterested in negotiating with the EU as equals nor in providing it capabilities for technological self sufficiency.

What gave you the impression that I postulate "as equals" negotiation? There are no equals in geopolitics, ever. US spent more than last half a century treating Europe as a vassal state, suppressing its development and exploiting it for capital, technology and people. That's not new for Europe. US nukes have been pointed at half of Europe for a very long time and the other half defense anf politics were fully infiltrated by the US. It's not new for Europe to carve out comfortable existence under someone's boot. But keeping yourself bound to a "has been" empire on its way down is not a winning strategy.

> China has significant strategic linkages with Russia that cannot be broken

Of course they can. Russia is maybe a few years (at most decades) away from losing significant part of its territory to China.

> China has significant disdain for Europe

Rightfully so. And Europe would need to be a good and useful client and a partner for a decade or two before it can change.

> China - just like the US - is uninterested in negotiating with the EU as equals nor in providing it capabilities for technological self sufficiency.

Europe is the only political entity on Earth that has self sufficiency in making most advanced lithography machines. China can't make them, US can make them. They would need piles of money (which they have) and decades of work (which they don't) to change that. Europe just should walk down from its pedestal and play their cards, including the strongest one, to get in good graces with China, because US is on its way out.

> As I have pointed to you with sources

Your sources are other people's narrations. But thank you very much for providing them, so that I could asses them.