[Dylan16807]

What do you think the production cost of RAM is? Even if we perfectly fixed competition and ended the AI bubble right now, I don't see how new RAM prices would drop below half the previous low point by 2030. Those fabs are legitimately ultra expensive, that's why almost all the RAM makers went out of business and we're left with the current cartel.

Also "massively reduced requirements for AI, so much so that we have 90% fewer servers despite the Jevons paradox" is not compatible with "high quality models make effective use of terabytes of memory" and "LLMs will be in everything".

And even if you could perfectly reuse all the memory out of the collapsing datacenters, that's not enough to make many of the phones and laptops you're describing. We'd need a 10x increase in manufacturing on top of the massive price drops, and even if we started building those fabs today they wouldn't be done in time (and we wouldn't have enough equipment to fill them).