[wyre]

Even if the future is agent-driven workflow, that doesn't stop the commodification of inference. a good agent-driven workflow, in my experience, is a byproduct of the harness and scaffolding around the agent.

What insiders are you talking about? They're going to be hot towards the possibilities so they can exit to a massive windfall. I dont know why they would want to be publicly critical of these technologies that could make millions on IPO.

[sanderjd]

I'm talking about people who work at the frontier labs who talk to the press, and what seems to be the revealed beliefs of those same people from the strategies we see their companies pursuing.

My point is that actually it would be worse for these people if the valuations are only high during this period - which will last awhile longer from now! - where their equity is not liquid, but crashes as the market figures out this commoditization thing.

But if we're wrong about how that's going to go, then this isn't a concern because there won't be any devaluation. And to me that seems to be what they honestly think is going to happen. And they know more than me (and I think they're a lot smarter than me), so this does temper my confidence in my own predictions.