[protocolture]

> Humanoid robots will enter the market at a cost-capability of under $10/hour for their labor, on a trajectory to under $1/hour before 2035 and under $0.10/hour before 2045.

I dont see it, unless this is an expectation that a robot will work for 50 years without maintenance at capex.

Why doesnt a comparable tool, like an excavator, work with this math? Why arent they 100 times cheaper to run than 20 years ago? Excavators can cost 50 - 100k pa in maintenance and fuel costs.

Why does creating a multifunction tool, with even finer tolerances, working in human safe workspaces cost less?

[pingou]

Because supposedly they would repair themselves or be repaired by other robots, and energy would cost less and less, anything would cost less and less if work is increasingly done by robots than can be improved year after year.

[protocolture]

Thats a pretty huge assumption.

It reminds me of predictions for the cloud, that someone would just write a perfect cloud formation script and then be able to sack all of their employees. But instead it just updated a lot of System Engineers to Cloud Engineers and Devops positions.

The direct implication is that not only will robots definitely be allowed into human spaces, and definitely be able to use generalised hardware to perform fine detail technical work but also contain only servicable/replacable parts.

I dont see any of that as proven. I think its far more likely that a very limited subset of robots will be allowed to be near humans at all, and insurance for them is going to be extremely expensive. I think if I had a look at Australian law they would be considered Plant, guaranteed if they have any pressurized components or strong lift capability. Maintenance, is going to cost an arm and a leg, and the units themselves will be largely proprietary, so you are looking at ongoing maintenance via the vendor, much like what the tractor industry is working on.

[imtringued]

But this logic applies to all machinery and technological progress. In the end it boils down to cheap energy and materials. The shape of the machine is actually irrelevant here.