[Sanzig]

Okay buddy, that was a Gish gallop if I've ever seen one.

The risk is real. The math isn't complicated, you could stand up a basic debris simulation in a few hours with numpy from first principles. And we also know it's real because it's actually happened multiple times now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_collision

This is a real thing that satellite operators worry about all the time. Conjunction analysis and risk modeling leading to a go/no-go decision is something that real satellite operations centres do daily.

I don't know if an LVT is the answer, but we do need to figure out some way to make operators consider space sustainability efforts, especially if they are launching systems with such density that they make subsequent operation in those shells significantly riskier.

[lstodd]

No, it is not real as in threatening anything in particular.

Some old crap got shot up. Who cares, we can launch 10x or 100x.

[hgoel]

That attitude is how you start building up more and more debris until an orbit is basically unusable.

[lstodd]

That attitude is how you start building up more and more tech debt until you trap yourself into extinction. If I thought that Musk's effort could benefit from an infusion of cash I would have organized it. As it happens he's limited by other things, so I sit back and enjoy the view of our civilization slowly climbing the Kardashev scale. You can fly by.

[protocolture]

>If I thought that Musk's effort could benefit from an infusion of cash I would have organized it

Uh huh.

>As it happens he's limited by other things

Being some kind of weird multicellular invasive species that looks human enough to get VC funding but isn't quite human enough to have a relationship with his kids. Also, rolling forward his failed/stalled business ventures into whatever is hot enough to be currently valuable. Busy man(thing)

>That attitude is how you start building up more and more tech debt until you trap yourself into extinction

I literally watched a video of Space X engineers demonstrating their space junk tracking tech, and talking about how seriously they take it. This seems like a you problem, the science and the people doing the work are already concerned. I don't see what you get out of being flippant about it.

>so I sit back and enjoy the view of our civilization slowly climbing the Kardashev scale.

Is that what plato's projecting on his cave wall these days?

[hgoel]

Let me guess, you still think the worlds loneliest buffoon still gives a shit about settling Mars?

[rogerrogerr]

He’s been remarkably consistent on the Mars thing for a looooong time.

[hgoel]

And then he betrayed all of that when he decided to IPO SpaceX and pivoted to space datacenters. Putting aside all the other things he's done over the past few years to betray his own stated ideals or plans.