The skill isn't the plowing. The skill is thinking and learning and the ability that atrophies is that of mental effort (which is what drives thinking and learning). Losing those will affect people's lives and potentially even their humanity.
The reason I delegate so much of local LLM installation and administration to Claude Code is simply because there's no point learning practical things that will work completely differently in a couple of years, or in memorizing procedures that I'll forget long before I need to perform them again.
No longer having to sweat all the details is a Good Thing, not a Bad Thing.
I am not sure I disagree, and I certainly don't mean to disagree very fervently.
But I think if you want to really learn to ride well, understand horses well, there might be some benefit in learning how to shoe a horse. At some level it should never only be someone else's job.
You actually do need some understanding of how a car works, no?
For example, you need to know it uses gasoline (or diesel), it requires oil changes every certain amount of time, break pad replacement, etc.
You also probably need to know that you can't operate cars over a certain amount of water, that you need a driver's license, stopping at red lights, etc.
Sure, you might not need to be a mechanic, but that's far from not understanding how a car works, which to me sounds similar to knowing how to shoe a horse, which is different than being a horse vet.
Yes, LLM are thrown through pretty much everyone digital life whether they like it or not, it's not just devs. It might even unlock exploring things that need code that average user wouldn't have dared to do before.
It did not. There are professional horse shoers like there always were. Not in huge numbers, but there are. Domesticated horses didn't just disappear from the world.