One question I've tried to answer is: has Iridium ever made enough money to even pay back the cost to put the satellites up. Using Google for all these rough numbers the first constellation cost $5 billion before Iridium (the first company) went bankrupt. For the second generation constellation launched between 2017 and 2019 it says $3 billion (for sats and launch). Compared to $400 million cumulative net income for Iridium (the second company) since bankruptcy restructuring ended in 2009. So as a non-investor (I only have boring index funds, no individual stocks) it seems like Iridium is a bad investment because it's a company that has spent 21+ years to turn $8 billion into $400 million (depending on when you want to start counting).
When Amazon bought Globalstar a couple months ago I had the same question and it's pretty much the same answer. For Globalstar there was basically 0 net income so the return on investment looked like it mostly came from spectrum gambling. Maybe that's the value for Iridium as well? Iridium does have some net income of around $100 million last year, but I don't know if RocketLab's vertical integration is going to be enough to flip the script. If RocketLab could have built and launched the Iridium Next constellation for $2 billion in 2017 would $100 million of net income 10 years later be a success?
I can't believe I bought a few shares of IRDM with a few hundred bucks in my trading account. Primarily because it was a RKLB adjacent company with decent fundamentals whos stock price wasn't scraping the sky.
I don't know how to feel about this acquisition though. Never thought IRDM would've been a bad investment.
The market can't be timed (by honest players), as I remember buying into Ubiquiti Networks at around $12/share thinking I might see a 8% bump after the old legal event subsided. Then just sort of forgot about that tax-sheltered holding for a few years. I also don't do the 3 month portfolio shuffle dance 95% of stock investment people try to ride.
The heavy cost of putting stuff in space is still not solved, but broadband and space-LTE service businesses are proven cash flows. They just have to mimic the profitable parts of Starlink. =3
I thought starlink would do something to grab the terrestrial market: put up a “satellite” on a tall building and everyone in the city could hammer down self-aiming CPEs as long as they had line-of-sight
RF Bandwidth is finite, and stronger broadcast transmission means fewer concurrent users are supported in wider service areas.
Most older cell towers could only cover small 3km client service areas, and would max out at a few thousand users. However, as the broadcast power dropped more cells could be installed in busy city centers. The base-stations themselves were often direct fiber service for lightning strike isolation.
Modern beam forming networks with G5 and newer... greatly increased the bandwidth, mobile battery life, and total user capacity of the smaller broadcast cell areas.
Starlink offers budget telecom connectivity in areas that didn't support normal telecom infrastructure, and these sparsely populated wide areas make sense for a LEO uplink.
The terrestrial telecom infrastructure is a different business, and firms have embedded themselves politically for over a century. Starlink would need to risk a great deal for locations to get the density necessary to disrupt the entrenched market, and ultimately could just become another telecom merger in the process.
Iridium tried to enter consumer markets with emergency and industrial coverage options. However, at its core it is an antiquated technology requiring large popcan sized circularly polarized antenna modules, scheduled >5W RF message uplinks, and $3.15/kB service rates.
Part of Starlink success was correlated with how bad Iridium serviced customers. In general, buying a laggard is an opportunity, but I personally don't think Iridium can escape its entrenched business model. They are 20 years too late, burned consumer goodwill, and have competitors already in profit mode. =3
Uncertain what Iridium global RF band allocation holdings were worth.
If it is still pole-to-pole global monolithic coverage, than hardware/legacy-protocols are of secondary interest. Modern SDR transceivers with proper RF beam-steering front-ends could retrofit the business while slowly phasing out legacy hardware.
But I do agree, Iridium was too pricey for most consumer product markets, and there were several other satellite broadband services.
Additionally, Starlink Direct to Cell (VoLTE) service now leverages global cellphone client infrastructure. It would be extremely foolish to compete with something proprietary. =3
Brother, share with us a sentence or two of why you think so