[webprofusion]

The memory manufacturers have made an interesting mistake. The tech giants of the world will be working to replace them from the supply chain as soon as possible. China already makes it's own RAM albeit at 16nm but you can bet they are working to get down to 4nm.

[sehansen]

DRAM hit a barrier at 10 nm a few years ago[0], so 16 nm is actually even closer to state-of-the-art. E.g. Micron newest node (1-γ) is their sixth at 10 nm [1] and their first EUV-based node.

The problem is that DRAM is fundamentally based on storing charge in a capacitor and how much charge a capacitor can store is a result of the geometry of the capacitor. So either someone will have to figure out a way to make the same size capacitor take up less space on the RAM chip (this is what broke the previous 20 nm barrier) or someone will have to invent a practical way of making RAM with less than 1 capacitor per bit.

0: https://semiengineering.com/dram-scaling-challenges-grow/

1: https://www.techpowerup.com/333111/micron-announces-shipment...

[nok22kon]

what makes you think China RAM makers will sell their chips at the old memory prices and not just 10% below the current market price

[Schlagbohrer]

China often exhibits tremendous internal market competition, so it's possible that different Chinese suppliers will race each other to the bottom (Chinese firms are really good at suriving on ultra-thin margins) making prices even lower than 10% below the premium providers.

[Hamuko]

More competition will drive down the market price, so it'll be 10% below a price that is lower than what we have currently. Obviously it's not gonna go down immediately, but more supply will definitely bring down prices.

Obviously, this is very bad for the existing memory makers, since these boom prices will not last forever, and the Chinese aren't gonna stop selling memory once they are in the market.