[WalterBright]

When the first transcontinental railroad was proposed and being built, it was beset with controversy and skepticism.

But when it opened, it exceeded the wildest expectations of its most optimistic boosters. It transformed the country overnight.

A similar thing happened with the first transatlantic cable.

[AnimalMuppet]

The Union Pacific Railroad (the eastern half of the transcontinental railroad) also caused the financial crisis of 1873 (due to construction costs and various corruption and bribery around financing them). It then went bankrupt in 1893.

So, yes, it transformed the country. That didn't necessarily benefit the stockholders and bondholders.

[WalterBright]

1. It finished the railroad in 1869. 1873 was four years later. 1893 was 24 years later - a generation.

2. Check out "Nothing Like It in the World" by Ambrose.

[AnimalMuppet]

Right, but four years later was definitely caused by the problem of (and shenanigans around) financing the original construction. Even if you want to say that 1893 was too late to be relevant, 1873 wasn't. It was the problem of financing the original construction that damaged the entire US economy.

[imtringued]

Ok, but the problem with this comparison is that SpaceX is trying to avoid building any infrastructure at all. They are obsessed with the launch vehicle and basically have zero plans doing anything on Mars or the Moon once they get there.

If you look at the competitors like say Blue Origin, you see that they have an entire lunar architecture mapped out that wouldn't be feasible without the infrastructure they're planning to build.

You also constantly hear from Musk and SpaceX fans that the moon is a distraction and that the transfer of techniques, etc, from the Moon to Mars is minimal because the ISRU resources and processes are different. From an outsiders perspective, the reality distortion is unbelievable.

Needing to send a different box to the surface of a gravity well doesn't really change anything, fundamentally speaking. You still need power generators, a power grid, communication infrastructure, habitats, life support systems, rovers/excavators to dig out the materials, launch pads, etc. The astronauts get to train on the Moon and come back to their families and perhaps wait until the kids leave the nest, before they commence their deadly one way trip to Mars.

Now after the merger and IPO, SpaceX has become a deeply underwhelming company if you care about space. Starship has been a massive failure and I'm being tired of being told that SpaceX has a proven track record and therefore you should expect them to accomplish something by going complete against the development ethos that their proven track record is based upon. Maybe its not clear, but from my perspective, SpaceX has already become the incumbent it claims to fight against.

For the average SpaceX fan, the Falcon 9 isn't something to be proud of, but rather something to retreat to, once it is exposed that the thing that according to them makes the Falcon 9 obsolete does in fact not make it obsolete. The true SpaceX ethos would have delivered a working Starship by now and only afterwards tried to figure out how to make the Mars/Moon promises work.

[rlt]

Wow so much to unpack here.

If SpaceX spent a ton of resources developing Moon and Mars base plane they’d be criticized for not focusing on the launch vehicle. The railroad company also doesn’t necessarily need to be the ones building the towns.

Starship has experienced setbacks but isn’t a “massive failure” by any measure.

[DangitBobby]

Transcontinental railroads weren't fighting against physics.

There's a reason people are pretty sure it won't work and it's not the difficulty of getting them into space or maintening them space or generally protecting them from space. Of course, those are all considerations as well. No, it's the cooling.

https://taranis.ie/datacenters-in-space-are-a-terrible-horri...

[WalterBright]

> cooling

I've seen many confident assertions about that issue. Do you think Musk doesn't know about it? People thought you couldn't reuse rockets, either. Or land them on their tails. Or pluck them out of the air with chopsticks.

[shigawire]

I'm a different guy... But I think he doesn't care and doesn't need to care. His main product is personal branding and hype -- caring about how it works is hardly relevant.

[anonymars]

Or launch atop an unprotected flat slab of concrete