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by abecedarius 34 days ago
Can you blame Moore's Law ending? The graph at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law looks steady up to the 2020s.

1979 to 2009 in the OP graph has a pretty steady drop from 10^7 to 10^1 USD/GB: 6 OOMs in 30 years. Then till before the recent spike it was around 1 OOM in 15 years: 1/3 the rate of progress on a log scale.

When it comes to CPU progress we blame the end of Dennard scaling several years before the knee in this memory curve. I'd guess the story of memory is similar in also hitting technical difficulties, but I don't know.

2 comments

Moore's law is about transistors doubling every interval¹ *on the most economical package*.

Wikipedia is misquoting it, and extraordinary expensive chips being more capable doesn't change the economical situation.

I am tickled that OOM can mean "out of memory" in another context. You clearly meant "orders of magnitude".
Heh, unintentional. Another term shorter than spelling out "orders of magnitude" is "decades", but I figure that's less familiar and even more confusing here. "Memory price started out falling two decades per decade..."
Well if you underestimate your memory requirements by orders of magnitude you'll be out of memory for sure.