[gste]

"When you build structure before the feature arrives, you’re committing on a guess."

I would argue that you are guessing either way. It could be probable that your feature will arrive, but not certain. It's a probability. If you don't build structure now, there's a cost for refactoring. If you build prematurely and the feature never arrives, you wasted effort.

What's the cost, probability and trade off between those possibilities? Obviously it depends. The whole YAGNI idea is a massive generalisation by design. Ultimately it depends on the circumstance.

Either way, it's often full of guessing and hand waving. It's the same problem as giving reliable work estimates. Certain software developers don't cope well with an uncertain world and look for black-and-white rules for everything.