[40four]

Controlling the straight was never one of their objectives. Decapitating the regime and degrading their military capabilities was the primary objective.

As others have said, the US can “reopen” the straight at any time they want. It’s not an issue of capabilities. But it’s very resource intensive and very expensive.

The logistics of escorting ships in and out of the straight isn’t trivial. I forget the name of the operation, but they did implement it for a few days before shutting it down. Politically, I imagine it’s pretty hard to justify the cost /benefit

On the Iranian side it takes a very small amount of resources and logistics. All they have to do is project power, whether they have it or not, and the shipping & insurance industries have to respect it.

Drones are really cheap, and that’s about all it takes for Iran to leverage their influence over the straight. Which is kind of crazy when you think about it. But it’s about the only bargaining chip they have left and they aren’t going let go of it easily.

[the_snooze]

>Decapitating the regime and degrading their military capabilities was the primary objective.

Those are tactical objectives, not strategic aims. The US is very good at winning tactically, but losing strategically. This is yet another example.

[40four]

Yeah that’s a good point. I don’t disagree with that. I just think the US administration’s strategy is something totally different than anyone is talking about.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence US aggression towards Venezuela, Cuba & Iran are all happening at the same time. These things are all connected and nobody’s really talking about it.

I don’t think regime change was the strategy, I think they were happy with just a “reset” of the top leaders, same as in Venezuela.

If they did get full regime change it would have just been a side effect. They were hoping the Iranians would seize the opportunity and rise up, but that didn’t happen. And I don’t blame them, that’s a big ask when they are getting gunned down in the streets or executed for dissent on a daily basis.

They were probably also riding off the “high” of how shockingly easy Venezuela went. But Iran is much more complex obviously

[simonh]

The US navy escorted ships through the strait back in the Iran Iraq war, but the situation has changed. There are naval drones and aerial drones now, the Iranians have access to Russian satellite data, and the US doesn’t have the volume and mix of ship types it had back then. The US navy has been over optimised for deep water peer fleet conflict. Bear in mind, the Red Sea has been functionally closed by the Houthis for years now.

[40four]

Yeah exactly. Drones have changed everything. What might have used to be routine is now no longer the case. Iran just has to project power in the media, and shoot some drones out at some boats every now and then and they effectively “control“ the straight. The shipping insurance markets skyrocketed as a result, so ships literally couldn’t afford to take the risk and stayed put.