[echelon]

Drone warfare is new.

Now you can use a drone that costs a few thousand dollars to take out a hundred million dollar ship.

It's a pricing issue. Whereas before, you had to use expensive guided missiles or your own naval or air force assets, now you can send a bunch of cheap drones.

Everything we know about war is going to change.

[dragontamer]

Not new. These drones were in production in Iran since 2016 after the capture of the downed Reaper Drone in 2011.

What is new is Irans willingness to use them. Which skyrocketed after a few missiles assassinated their supreme leader.

[ozim]

The part where you are wrong is not that reaper or other highly sophisticated drones were available in 2011.

In 2026 we have swarms of cheap drones that are fire and forget and they are cheap for mass production.

That’s totally different game.

[bulbar]

So you are saying the US just showed to the world that it is not prepared for modern warfare?

[ozim]

Huh me?

Nope I think that's nothing new and that was already in the news like months ago when countries started asking Ukraine to buy drone warfare know-how.

[bulbar]

Really not sure how to interpret this thread. I could buy a drone for 100 bucks 10 years ago.

Using cheap drones for asymmetric warfare can't be new or surprising for a country with a supposed vast intelligence network. Or for a country that's supposed to have a modern military which means having effective answers to what an enemy throws at you in battle.

[ozim]

My favorite example is how NATO recognized cyberspace as operational domain in 2016 — like no one there watched or heard about a movie from 1983 called „War Games”.

I think you vastly overestimate speed with which people acknowledge new facts.

Second best is only Catholic Church fully acknowledging heliocentric theories in 1992.

[fc417fc802]

> can't be new or surprising

Indeed it isn't. The military has been doing cheap drone swarm research since well before ukraine. But I think that for everyone - including the military - whether or not the people in charge update their worldviews is an entirely separate matter.

[einpoklum]

Drone warfare may be new, but small-boat operations; Surface-to-Sea missiles; aquatic mines; and long-distance cannons - those are not new. And those are probably enough to effectively close down the straights. To do so, Iran does not need to defeat and sink the US Navy force; it needs to occasionally hit some ships running the blockade. We saw this with the Bab Al-Mandab blockade, beginning in 2024; Yemen's military is not nearly as powerful as Iran's, and still, ships started avoiding the Bab Al-Mandab, because a, what, 20%? chance of being hit and taken over or sunk, with some of the crew possibly taken prisoner, is not something one does if one can avoid it, for the price of a longer journey.

[fragmede]

> Everything we know about war ~~is going to~~ has changed.

FTFY