[spwa4]

The US as a large-scale import nation and so does not need the rest of the world (except perhaps Europe, and only small parts) to keep its markets open to the US.

Even in the European case, Europe would lose much more than the US would if they closed their markets. Plus, a lot of Europe is either very close to breaking point and unwilling to change (Italy), or rapidly worsening into a crash, and unwilling to change (France).

It's Europe that is dependent on a large trade surplus with the rest of the world, financed by dollar loans to 3rd world countries. Now China is taking away their trade surplus, even directly (meaning Europe has a massive trade deficit to China), and indirectly (replacing demand for European goods, famously cars, everywhere). This is causing large-scale job losses in Europe as well as total disaster for government finances across the block, finances that were unhealthy to begin with.

Now Europe and China are unwilling to lend to the rest of the world (because initially that would make very rich Europeans/the CCP a little bit poorer, by raising inflation quite a bit, thereby raising interest rates, which will move government finances from disaster to catastrophe), so if these money flows are to keep going, either the US MUST export to China, which is not happening, or EU and/or China must loan several times their own GDP to the third world, or the EU and/or China must massively increase their dollar holdings (which will, of course, inflate the Euro and Renminbi something awful whichever way it goes). But either WILL happen, because a crash will do that too. Which is what people mean when they say the worldwide system is on a crash course.

[someguyornotidk]

I don't think whether a country is an importer or an exporter matters at this point. This is likely going to develop into a matter of national security. Nations cannot allow most of their domestic industries to be destroyed.

If the US doesn't reverse course soon, I think we'll start seeing large-scale closure of international markets to US companies very soon. Even with US retaliation, there is no other option.

[mike_hearn]

Zero chance of that happening. Europe has already largely deindustrialized and it never closed itself to China. Europe also tried to stop buying Russian oil and failed due to transshipment through India.

It's really sad seeing how little so many of us Europeans understand the situation. America and China hold all the cards, Europe holds none. It makes very little that is both unique and strategic. Decades of left wing economic policies are coming home to roost and there's no way to turn the ship around now.

[KptMarchewa]

> Europe has already largely deindustrialized

Yawn. If you look at actual production in industry data we're at the peak or close to.

A lot of this yapping is (outside of just boring political droning) due to conflating relative stagnation with "deindustrialization" lol and looking purely at individual countries like Germany, not realizing the most of the recent growth is east and south of it.

[spwa4]

> Yawn. If you look at actual production in industry data we're at the peak or close to.

Indeed. This is the same argument people make about oil: it's at (or near) it's highest level ever! So things must be good! And that's not exactly true.

Even though, for oil, there's barely any people who see how bad things are (I guess the top of the US government sort of demands you don't if you work for the US government). But what matters is the change.

If things even just stay the same, efficiency improvements will lead to massive job losses, and in practice "stay the same" still means some companies suffer and others gain. The suffering companies are the employment giants, the gaining companies are the "lights out" factories, to an approximation. Things must go up, it's "the derivative" that matters, so to speak.

That's why it's such a massive deal that the derivative for Europe's industry (even with the massive military investment) ... very close to zero. In other words: the job losses will continue even under Germany's massive investment plan.

You could say they're not beating inflation, but that isn't exactly accurate. Or it isn't the problem.

[Mairoce]

Please tell us more about how “left wing economic policies” have destroyed Europe.

[chiply314]

Germany, the 3th biggest GDP country is deindustrializing right now.

that def will hurt.

But we still have a lot of capital left, so plenty of ways to adress the elephant in the room. Its just very weird that the current CDU doesn't has any real good ideas.

USA has a certain amount of hands especially IT but otherwise? China runs circles around Europe and USA for everything else.

Btw. CDU was in power for 16 years and is more right wing than center. If you say left wing in sense of not protecting our own markets, i think this was accepted globally.

USA also can't make things anymore.

If no-one comes up with the general notion of a min of like 60% home made, none of it matters because rebuilding this will take a lot of time and money.

And even with a chip factory in USA, they still import most and automate as much as possible.

This might reduce the pressure on USA Loans but will not help the USA people themselves. They will just continue seeing a bigger and bigger split between poor and rich.

[mike_hearn]

CDU is not right wing in the sense the Republicans are, certainly not today's version that is subservient to the German left.

[chiply314]

In germany CDU is right wing though.

So from a wording point of view: generic term still would be CDU is right.

[fspoettel]

Europe generates ~20% of revenue for US big tech which is a large part of its stock market. With how precariously coupled US growth is to these companies, it absolutely needs that market.

[sajithdilshan]

But can the Europe survive without the US big tech. Imagine the worst case US bans any sort of export from big tech to Europe, all startups and even every tech reliant company in EU would collapse without AWS, Azure or Google cloud. Also imagine ban on exports from Apple and Google, from tomorrow onwards both iPhones and Android phones stops working because software services are banned in EU.

It’s so easy to argue on putting tariff on US tech, but we forget how much Europeans depend on it and it would be like shooting one’s own foot.

One could argue that over the time EU can build their own infrastructure and alternative, but who is going to invest for it? The governments? With tax payers money? And who is going to build it? EU is one of the fastest aging continent in the world and what can they offer to attract young talent?

[iririririr]

that would actually spark a new golden age.

aws et all are just extracting rent. we all know this.

telcos have some ownership of the android firmware they distribute, and could easily spin up and fund alternatives like replicant or even go full partnership with Chinese versions.

simply moving email providers from Microsoft would make threeletter agencies work much more difficult, and it's a 2min dns change.

any way you look at it, the impact would be positive. i don't think your example is the example you think it is. like trump, you're ignoring agency to every other player in the systems and ignoring some obvious consequences.

[sajithdilshan]

Either you’re stupid or ignorant. What do you mean by easily spin up alternative android? And who is going to fund that? EU spend millions of Euros for a corona Warn app, and spinning an android alternative would cost billions, with tax payers money. Also everyone that uses iPhones, what are they going to do? Are they gonna get free android phones?

Forget about phones, all the companies that uses RDS would lose their data and that would be catastrophic.

[spwa4]

> And who is going to fund that?

Oh, European billionnaires and incumbent telecoms would love to. As soon as they get enough government concessions and guarantees. Who exactly? The ALDI family. Xavier Niel.

At least for people working in IT this is the fastest way to answer the question "how can we make it even worse?". Especially European incumbent telecoms. They're the answer to this question "do people sometime quit their job, in Europe, through suicide?". Yes, yes they do.

[sajithdilshan]

> European billionnaires and incumbent telecoms would love to As soon as they get enough government concessions and guarantees

I'm pretty sure they are really looking forward to pocket billions of tax payers money. If they are so eager, why wait for the government? just go for it like the US counterparts.

[HexPhantom]

I think this is a bit too deterministic. Even if Europe is in a weak position economically, "the US does not need the rest of the world" seems overstated

[chiply314]

I would even argue that the USA is imploding without China.

The normal USA citicen can't afford a car anymore. Either they make it a lot cheaper over there or they have to continue pressue the USA Citicents to accept that they are not allowed to buy cheap China products.

It will be quitei nteresting to see if we will see a global rebalancing of manufactoring and co around the globe for USA, Europe and China or a overall change in system from pure capitalism to something else.

Or the big players start to reinvest into countries again to have customers who can actually afford it again.

[spwa4]

This is not how economists think. They see the US, go "Coal mining, check. Iron mining, check, so you can make steel inside US. More than enough people, check. Oil, check. As well as 1000 other things, and mostly, the checks are there", and conclude the US could produce cheap cars. So if it makes sense or it becomes urgent enough, it will happen. Nothing is really preventing the US from doing everything itself, and doing that will improve the balance of trade (while making Americans much poorer).

In other words, the problem of "The normal USA citizen can't afford a car anymore" can be understood in a different way. That can be fixed, by paying people less (yes, less, really, think about it)

The US can drop it's imports and do essentially everything itself.

Right now people can't afford a car because the US is so equal, meaning they can't compete with labor in India or ... But you could "fix" that, by creating more inequality in the US (do what we effectively do now, worldwide, but within the US. Forbid people immigrating from California to New York. Move all banks to New York, build factories in California. Pay people in California 20% what they make in New York for the same job), and production will move back to the US.

And if that offends you, please understand that's exactly what we're doing now. Just replace California and New York with India or China and New York with, well New York, or Washington, and that's exactly the system we have. That's the system the EU is trying to create in the EU.

Doesn't work that way for exports (EU, or China, or to a lesser extent, India). The EU is an export block that's rich getting out competed by export blocks that are poor ... Now THAT is a difficult problem to solve. Not that EU politicians are even trying.

The US is not doing better because US politicians are better than EU ones. They just have a much easier problem to solve. And, of course, both US and EU politicians are failing, but the consequences are much bigger in the EU.

For example, the EU is in fact making it harder to immigrate WITHIN the block, despite "free movement", and is creating massive differences in pay for the same work, which is apparently what socialism stands for:

Typical after-tax pay for supermarket cashier:

Netherlands: 2550 euro (after tax), for 36 hours of work ~ 15 euro/hour

Greece: 1050 euro (after tax), for 40 hours of work ~ 6 euro/hour

Oh and that's not where it ends. You get way more social protection and medical in the Netherlands ... for paying less in tax. The EU is purposefully creating inequality to solve the problem of rich Dutch people not getting richer fast enough. It's only within the same country that there is less inequality in the EU. And, of course, the EU has been making it worse, not better, for about 18 years now. They're not about to stop. The US hasn't even decently started doing this yet.

[chiply314]

Didn't USA get rich by being the manufactoring powerhose in the 60/70s? That wasn't just because USA consumed everything by themselves.

I assume it was a mix of exports and a continuesly growing population keeping this system alive for a long time.

If you know reduce the avg salary down to 1/3, you will get cheaper cars (if you even still need people to make cars, relevant amount of people), but still no one can afford it.

You need to get down from the current price point of 50k down to what? 20k?

Car manufactorers will have to shrink down production, reduce laber numbers, reduce salaries and the avg us american will have to downsize its consumption by a lot.

The USAmericans are at least not taking social security and health care as a human right, after all they don't know it better mh?

[spwa4]

No. The US got rich by becoming the manufacturing powerhouse after WW2, and lending enormous amounts to the world (even to the Soviets) so people could actually buy the goods.

The second part played an enormous role too.

[throw-the-towel]

But how exactly does the EU promote inequality and make it harder for citizens to migrate?

[spwa4]

By creating extra demands you have to satisfy before you can work in a different country, while excluding EU member nationals from social benefits that might allow living without work. It's not allowed to, for example, hold a job in Spain and have your pay deposited in an account in the Netherlands. Or Ireland-France. And they cannot get refugee status visas (which is why non-EU migration is so common now). You'll also be paying double taxes in most cases. And opening a bank account is tied to having a work-visa. And only a Dutch citizen can live in the Netherlands while getting benefits.

So you have to be decently wealthy now to migrate legally in the EU, going up. Which of course achieves exactly what's "needed": poor Greeks/... cannot get away from low Greek wages by simply driving to the Netherlands. Doesn't work. Wage disparities and inequality can grow and grow and grow.

Not that this is going even remotely fast enough for the EU. There is talk now about a "2-speed" EU. Meaning people from the periphery would get less rights (especially when it comes to how much weight their votes carry, but also when it comes to moving)

Companies, by contrast, can easily move to find the cheaper labor. Because, of course they can.

And, because of course, people who "cheat" by not taking benefits or jobs, just making a bit on the side and living in caravans to avoid everything, big example being the Roma, are being hunted by the authorities in 50 different ways. Problem is that mostly they're not doing much of anything wrong, so methods like forcing them through stealing their kids are used (sorry, of course I mean "protecting the kids" through youth services, excuse me, I misspoke. Protecting kids. Not kidnapping kids to pressure the parents).

Oh and it is TOTALLY unreasonable that these people are teaching their kids to directly use violence against anyone come to "help" from the state. Totally, completely, 100% unreasonable. What are you going to do though? When youth services was allowed to use violence against the kids, they massively abused that. For money. For sex. Shooting (yes, really, with a gun) kids slowly leaving the premises. Leaving "troubled" kids in an isolation cell until they commit suicide. Not called that, of course. You'd be surprised how many euphemisms youth services have for both isolation cells for children and for suicides happening on (or immediately after) their watch. Things like this[1] for example have never been named isolation cells, which is what they are, but, loosely translated "time-out room", "separation from everything", "low stimulation room", "TAVA room", "separation from incitement room", "cool down room", "sensory-friendly room", "seclusion room", "safe space" (NEVER trust or go with anyone from youth services talking about safe spaces, unless you're at least 25, and even then) and I'm sure I haven't covered even half of them)

[1] https://www.hadektoys.com/nl/producten/tava

[Mairoce]

Ah yes, the classic “Europe is in decline” narrative favored by Americans. You’d think after more than a decade of that nonsense, people would start to ignore it or at least question its assumptions. Nominal GDP and venture capital funding are not the only things that matter in an economy.

[WarmWash]

Europe has no tech industry. It's largely floating on the same economy it had 50 years ago. The situation is beyond dire.

[NorwegianDude]

Hey! We Norwegians have on average more ownership in US tech companies than Americans!

Everything is going according to plan. When we have majority, we'll move the companies to Norway, but don't tell anyone, this is supposed to be a secret. /s

[sajithdilshan]

European economy would implode without trading with US. The biggest economy in Europe, Germany; exports cars, pharmaceuticals and other high end machinery to US and the whole middle class in Germany relies on the jobs from those exports oriented companies

[NorwegianDude]

To be fair, it would be a bigger issue for the US. No country is more economically dependant on the rest of the world than the US. The US is living on the USD, and if others stop using it the US would have to do extreme cuts on everything.

[sajithdilshan]

That’s true, but every time a country or a group of country tried to do that US has stopped it either strategically or with military force so far.

[NorwegianDude]

But you are talking about Europe. If the US and Europe were to cut all ties they would both face some serious consequences, and the US wouldn't be able to do anything about that, not strategically or military. The US need trust in order to function, and attacking would loose them all trust globally, making it much much more severe than anything any other nations would struggle with.

[sajithdilshan]

I don't think entire EU would cut ties with US. US would definitely try to divide and concur and I think they would be successful. Not every country in EU sees US as an enemy (especially conservative and right leaning governments in EU)

[gmueckl]

Cars are largely not exported to the US from Germany, but built in US factories. German car companies have factories all over the world.

[makapuf]

You talk about Europe then only give Germany examples ..? Is that a German only problem ?

[sajithdilshan]

Germany is the biggest economy in the Europe and the one that’s holding Euro stable ( France and Italy would soon be only serving their debt). If German economy goes down, then you can say goodbye to Euro

[FranzFerdiNaN]

America has to be careful not to push Europe into the direction of China though. And with how Trump acts that might happen sooner than they would like. Bullying like how Trump prefers to do only works until some point. Europe mostly seems to bet on America changing its tune again once Trump is gone but we have to wait and see if the rot in America hasnt set in too deep already.

[sajithdilshan]

Even if America pushes EU to be like China, they cannot be China. China is one country ruled by one law and in a unified vision. On the other hand EU is a band of 27 countries with different laws, different problems and different priorities. They couldn’t even agree on a response for Ukraine-Russian war and present a unified front and do you think they would present a unified front against Americans?

[big_paps]

I think he meant : to be pushed towards China as a partner while moving away from the US.

[spwa4]

And ... what will Europe do if America simply ... also moves to use China as a trading partner? Or just drops the EU goods entirely? It'll be unpopular for 1 or 2 years and then the US will be better off. The the EU will have to create 600 billion in new (dollar) revenue per year to compensate. They haven't successfully done that in 20+ years ...

[lljk_kennedy]

[citation needed]

[chiply314]

What the Clown currently does is to push Europe massivly into exactly this.

I can't find it right now but I read news just a few month ago that the EU is working on making it easier to invest into EU similiar to how the Petrodollar currently works.

But if the deindustrialization of germany/EU continues as it currently does and US implodes and China has also issues, we will see how the new world order will look like.

China is for sure more resiliant though. The living standards were never as high as what we as germans are used to and they dont demonstrate.

In the USA people have guns and civil issues and a hard divide between city and country sides.

But as Europe/Germany we should be able to increase our bonds right? Investing into solar/energy transformation; Doesn't matter short term how this will end.

And if AI continues as it does with robotics, we might even see in 50-100 years a complete change in system?

USA Bonds are exploding so they might have overplayed their hand already.