[UltraSane]

" I'd argue that current frontier models already exceed the abilities of average humans " for things that fit in their context window sure but LLMs can't learn over time the way humans can. One example is LLMs are very good at writing a few thousands line of code but they absolutely cannot write coherent million line codebases. By average human I meant the average skill level for the job. AGI would need to be able to pass a interview and get hired and the perform well enough to not get fired.

[Davidzheng]

Yeah it's not true that for every job, it is better than median worker of that job. But it is conceivable that for almost all jobs it is already better than the median human (not just workers of that job).

[isomorphic_duck]

You have to understand that the median human is terrible at (almost) everything. Humans, the only examples of general intelligence we know, are economically valuable precisely because they can train themselves to specialise at a (relatively) narrow task over time. You don’t measure how good a coding model is by how well it programs relative to Doctors, or how well it can prove theorems relative to baristas, or how well it can write coherent novels relative to programmers. That would be a dumb metric.

[tasuki]

> Humans, the only examples of general intelligence we know

Our intelligence only seems "general" to us, because we're viewing it through our own eyes. Our "intelligence" is specialized to our survival, and we're terrible at most tasks outside that scope.

[isomorphic_duck]

We operate and think about subjects like Higher Topos Theory, Information Geometry and Algebraic Topology, which are several layers of abstractions removed from anything that can be termed as a skill “specialised to our survival”.

[Davidzheng]

But in any case, I think more than 10% of information workers today can be replaced by current-generation models indefinitely.

[ChrisLTD]

It's decent at rote coding tasks, but I haven't seen these things be reliable enough outside of that specific task to make the claim that it can do the work of any information worker.