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by c0rruptbytes 35 days ago
Deepseek isn't philanthropy, it's a hedgefund trying to short the western AI market by saying "hey we can do 90% of they can (arguably better at a density metric) for a 1/10th of the cost"

it's my theory at least, the Hindenburg Research of AI
1 comments
dboreham 35 days ago
Widely held belief in investor circles is that the Chinese government has a goal to deflate the US AI bubble and Deepseek is part of the plan to achieve that goal.
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aurareturn 35 days ago
Why would China care about deflating the US AI bubble? Why do we think there is a bubble for sure in 2025/2026? Why doesn't China also worry about their own AI bubble inside the country?
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tarpitt 35 days ago
>Why would China care about deflating the US AI bubble?

To weaken the stature of the USA on the global stage relative to themselves. Perhaps decrease US investment in AI and slow creation of some general AI superweapon I suppose.

Because the goal is to show that cheap chinese AI can compete with expensive USA AI, it's nessisarially a low-cost attack relative to the "damage" it could create.

>Why do we think there is a bubble for sure in 2025/2026?

Well that's the position that these chinese firms are trying to convince us of, and they can convince us by undercutting proprietary models in price/performance/openness.

In other words, we can be sure there is a bubble to the extent that open-weight models can successfully demonstrate that there is no moat.

>Why doesn't China also worry about their own AI bubble inside the country?

Because they haven't bet the farm on AI like the USA has.

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aurareturn 35 days ago 

  To weaken the stature of the USA on the global stage relative to themselves. Perhaps decrease US investment in AI and slow creation of some general AI superweapon I suppose.
I think you are overthinking it. The reason why Chinese AI labs have to go open source is because they do not have the clout to freely expand to international markets. Therefore, in order to succeed and get attention, they are providing their models for free if you have the inference hardware.

  Well that's the position that these chinese firms are trying to convince us of, and they can convince us by undercutting proprietary models in price/performance/openness.
I don't think these firms have said there is a US AI bubble and they're trying to pop it.

  Because they haven't bet the farm on AI like the USA has.
They are. The only problem is that they can't buy Nvidia chips or EUV machines so they're bottlenecked.
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