[15155]

Thousands of American engineers all over the country (most of whom probably aren't on Hacker News) work with ITAR/EAR-regulated software and hardware every single day: these regulations are really not difficult to abide if you're a citizen.

[quantumwoke]

And what about the rest of the world? I can't imagine US partners will abide this for long.

[15155]

They get the dual-use scraps or whatever China is hawking.

Being told "no" is never fun, but the regulations are not hard to comply with (despite what Anthropic might have you believe.)

> I can't imagine US partners will abide this for long.

What are they going to do? Start their own Anthropic? Go for it. Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default?

[InsideOutSanta]

> Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default?

This kind of zero-sum thinking is what is killing the US's global influence right now.

[15155]

Except it isn't zero-sum thinking: the rest of the world can have the scraps, and as long as the scraps are marginally better than the rest of the world's offerings, they will sell.

[InsideOutSanta]

You do see how that is not going to work, right?

[15155]

Seems to work for every other export-controlled good and service.

[sofixa]

> What are they going to do? Start their own Anthropic? Go for it. Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default?

Because American tech companies make a lot of money from outside of the US. For instance, 1/4 of all Apple revenues are from Europe, and 1/5 from China and China-claimed territories. Only around 40% are from the Americas (so not even the US exclusively).

Would American tech companies be as successfull without ~half their revenues?

In any case, it doesn't matter, the cat is out of the bag. Nobody sane and non-American would trust American frontier labs, because their models can be yanked at will by whoever is in the White House. It would be suicidal to rely on them for critical business or developer workflows. So your options are to go with Mistral or open source Chinese models, hosted within your environment, with the added benefits of being able to control the costs and being able to fine tune the models to better work for you.

[15155]

> Would American tech companies be as successfull without ~half their revenues?

Good luck with "if you don't let us use your AI technology, we wont allow iPhones in" - go for it.

[sscaryterry]

Yep, we all can play tit for tat.

[sofixa]

Needlessly patriotic and confrontational.

I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market?

And iPhones, not really. But you can bet your ass that every business purchasing software in Europe is at least considering the geopolitical risks of buying American, and thinking of alternatives. Doesn't mean they'll all stop buying American software any time soon, but the shift has already started.

[15155]

> I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market?

You presume that every single product they sell will be restricted: this is unrealistic. The rest of the world can have the gimped models, and as so long as they're better than other offerings, the revenue will flow - which is exactly what happens with countless other dual-use goods.