[hackingonempty]

The only one you mentioned was existing factories extending production hours. AFAIK they already operate 24/7! Apple can't switch suppliers because everyone is selling out. Semiconductor factories are specialized and can't be easily switched to other types. It takes time and money and it stops making money for the duration, leading to a similar risk analysis as building a new one.

[groundzeros2015]

1. existing factories increasing production 2. factories but are not making ram switch 3. Large consumers of ram use alternatives, broadening the supply

And let’s suppose none of these make a mark and a new factory needs to be built or something. This means: 1. You wait for build out and prices go down. 2. Prices go down anyway because demand is not sustainable.

And to turn it around, when you buy an expensive GPU to play computer games you are claiming a valuable industrial resource. Should the government subsidize your home consumption use case? Computer technology is a scarce resource with many uses.

[throw2ih020]

> existing factories increasing production

All existing factories have maximized their production.

> factories but are not making ram switch

It takes 2-3 years to switch, by which time demand may have satisfied from other manufacturers building additional capacity. So ironically, investing too much into new capacity can be dangerous.

> Large consumers of ram use alternatives, broadening the supply

What alternative exists for NAND flash?

[groundzeros2015]

> All existing factories have maximized their production.

Citation needed.

This is almost certainly not true because capacity is not binary but an efficiency curve. As the cost of RAM increases it becomes economical to operate the factory at higher capacities.

> It takes 2-3 years to switch

Citation needed. Who sets the max speed limit for changing?

> What alternative exists for NAND flash?

There is a whole range of suppliers. The alternative is which flash and who manufactures it.

[compiler-guy]

It takes about 3-4 years to build a fab and ten-billion dollars.

https://download.intel.com/newsroom/2022/manufacturing/fab-f...

And even if someone were able to magically build one in half the time, that would certainly drive up the cost quite dramatically, and would still be two-ish years from production.

The history of the memory industry is jam-packed with booms and busts, and companies that over-provisioned capacity during the boom times, only to have the bust happen as the fab is coming on line, are the ones that fail.

=-=-=-=

"William de Gale, portfolio manager at BlueBox Asset Management, told CNBC’s Europe Early Edition on Wednesday that the industry tends to have “enormous ups and downs”.

“In the long run it’s a pretty dreadful industry,” he said.

“I suspect that’s still the case every time people make an argument that the memory cycle is gone, and it’s now a long-term value-creating industry – just before it all goes horribly wrong.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/25/memory-stocks-cyclical-boom-...

[Danox]

$10 billion dollars, 3 to 4 years, that’s less time to build a new modem chip that works. that’s less time to build a new M series processor that works. Google, Microsoft, and Meta We’ll spend close to $500 billion in 2026, just on their AI dreams, I would say having a supply of memory chips is vital towards your business if you’re someone like Apple or AMD or Nvidia, these days these days, if you want to design the devices you need to design, so who’s going to take it in house?

[throw2ih020]

> There is a whole range of suppliers. The alternative is which flash and who manufactures it.

There are only 6. Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia, Micron, WD, and YMTC.

5 operate as a price-fixing cartel, and the sixth is Chinese domestic.

[groundzeros2015]

I did some more research and it turns out the problem is not maxing capacity to produce ram but that these manufacturers have switched to another class of ram leaving less of their production for consumer hardware

[Danox]

Apple can’t switch now, but they can take it in the house over the next 3 to 4 years to avoid this fiasco again. They have the right new CEO for the job. He’s a designer and engineer of chips, and since Apple didn’t waste money on the AI model/Data Center building exercise.

They certainly have the money to get it done in house, long-term, why? after this fiasco, the Chinese are going to have a much bigger piece of the memory market worldwide. So strategically, it pays to bring it memory in house in partnership with TSMC in Arizona or Oregon.