[AustinDev]

With memory manufacturers running gross margins in excess of 80% how long until we see upstarts come online to eat away at that or is that unlikely to happen in the near future?

I can't imagine a margin that large is allowed to exist unchallenged for more than a few years.

[m348e912]

The memory manufacturing industry is historically notorious for its "feast or famine" cycles, bouncing violently between periods of extreme supply gluts and crushing shortages. We're in a shortage with massive demand right now, but manufacturers are hesitant to significantly invest in new manufacturing capacity due to the risk of being left holding the bag if demand drops.

[benoau]

The only challenger is Chinese fabs, but they could just as easily end up banned from western markets.

Immense profits have proven a very endurable shield against upstarts for "big tech" so... we'll probably end up watching regulators attempt to dismantle the RAM cartel throughout the 2040s.

[gck1]

> The only challenger is Chinese fabs, but they could just as easily end up banned from western markets.

It's more likely that China will simply impose export controls. It's unlikely Chinese fabs will be able to fulfill local demand, leave alone global, for the foreseeable future. And they do need these components for their own manufacturing.

[tavavex]

Probably American markets, not Western. The EU, Canada, Australia and others would have no reason to reject cheaper supply, and they don't have the same anti-democratic tech forces ready to do anything to ban their competition like the US does.

[erxam]

Even the upstarts are cashing in. I believe CXMT is making some serious cash now.

[Danox]

Which they will put back into the business, this will be remembered as the time when the Chinese entered the worldwide memory market in a big way.

[m4rtink]

Yep - the incumbent memory cartel bathes in money for a bit longer - then Chinese manufacturers eat their market share while they sleep on their laurels.

[r0fl]

Apple makes their own CPUs what is stopping them from making RAM?

[ceejayoz]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_silicon

> Apple is a fabless manufacturer; production of the chips is outsourced to contract foundries including TSMC and Samsung.

[dagmx]

Where would they make that which isn’t constrained already?

[dylan604]

As has been said here every time this question comes up, years away if ever. It takes years to bring a new fab online as well as a huge amount of capital investment. Once the AI bubble pops, you now have a glut of RAM chips with prices crashing. If that new fab has been paid off while the getting was good, it's now an albatross on the books. Not something investors are eager to get into