[Mistletoe]

AI was always going to be a race to the bottom and low margins. It’s why I’m extremely bearish on AI as an investment. It’s framed as some high margin business when it’s really going to end up like your toilet paper at Costco. You will use whatever is cheapest and gets the job done.

[4ffsss]

Correct.

And the value-add experiences that utilise LLMs require immense imagination et al that folks at Anthropic will not be able to conceive of - given that they have made immense sunk investments in existing assets. This clouds ones thinking immensely.

Both OAI and Anthropic have tremendous failure risk and this is of course not reflected in the fake private market valuations.

I see a world where lots of stuff is mass produced in china (tokens) but the acutal goods that deliver the experiences are designed, marketed and sold in the west at much higher prices. of course this a nightmare scenario for anthropic et al.

[XenophileJKO]

I used to think this.. but I think my opinion is changing. The reason is that the leaders likely will be able to accelerate faster.

So what you see is the market "stretching".. the bottom getting cheaper and the top end running away and getting more expensive. At some point the top end may be too valuable to even sell access to.

[majormajor]

Most white-collar/knowledge-service-industry work is a weird type of work.

It's fundamentally about enabling things and largely middleman-type stuff. I have a hard time imaging what "At some point the top end may be too valuable to even sell access to." would even look like? What are you doing with that AI power, and who is paying for the output and why?

Elon probably isn't gonna spend that much on a model that can generate him ever-better fake porn but does nothing that he can use to sell stuff to other people. Especially in a world where open models are "good enough" for many things like "tell me how to fix the plants in my garden that are dying" and the like. What remains in the narrow knowledge-work space of: can't be done by an individual or small group themselves, but is valuable enough that it would make sense for people to hoard access to these extreme frontier models? Try to recreate Hollywood-as-a-monopoly by becoming the single content producer for everyone's individualized feed and so owning all the advertising budget in the world? Seems hard, we've already seen how easy it is for cheap-and-crappy-but-addictive-or-funny content to disrupt traditional media.

(There's also pure scientific research, but historically that's not very directly connected to "massive profit" and has a habit of leaking out and getting productized most effectively by other people or just being really easy to copy once someone shows how it's done.)

Robotics could be a different story, as physical labor can be more inherently productive, but "reasoning" advantages are unlikely to be a big long-term differentiator there. At some point the brick laying robot is satisfactorily building the structure, and you're good.

A huge amount of the value of "the economy" and the power of a currency is driven by circulation of money, and one thing that all the "bullshit jobs" white-collar/service-industry work does is keep the money moving and ensure that a lot of people have some good-or-services of value to exchange. If you take away the ability to offer services worth exchange from huge chunks of the economy in these super-frontier-models-replace-everything scenarios... you're gonna have a bad time?

[canadiantim]

Glm 5.2 very much argues against that. Opus 4.8 level quality for cheap. That’s sufficient for most tasks, so if/when you do need SOTA models you can spend more for specific tasks but otherwise rely on the cheap but still plenty good models for everything else

[Mistletoe]

For me better models are like 8k TVs, my 4k TV is fine, I really don’t know if I can see or tell the difference from 8k and 4k, and to be honest I’m usually just streaming some 1080p anyway. Sometimes products reach the plateau where humans just don’t need better. I’d certainly never pay for AI, Gemini 3.5 Flash free works just fine when I need AI. I don’t even click higher models for free in the Gemini app. I mainly just care about speed. I’m not a programmer, AI doesn’t make me able to make my job better or make more money and the vast amount of people in the world are like me. These valuations are not based on that reality and the stock market correction is going to be 1930s level I fear.

https://isaiprofitable.com/

[crote]

> The reason is that the leaders likely will be able to accelerate faster

Model improvement is already hitting diminishing returns, and people aren't willing to pay substantially more for a slightly better model. There's no "accelerating away" when the new models don't open up a huge new market. If anything, the companies burning huge amounts of money on marginal improvements will be undercut by companies happy to sell current models at a significantly lower cost.

[_carbyau_]

The issue is who is going to pay for access?

The model has to be sold for cheaper than the value it adds.

Or your customers will bleed out financially.

EDIT: rethought entire premise.