[simonw]

... or rising, at least as long as there's a RAM shortage.

[mbgerring]

I’d bet that there won’t be a RAM shortage for very long.

[simonw]

The best article I've seen about that is this one by David Oks (ignore the headline, the content is much better): https://davidoks.blog/p/ai-is-killing-the-cheap-smartphone

> It was only in 2025, as memory prices began an unprecedented surge, that the memory makers started to build new fabs targeted at HBM, all slated to start producing chips in 2027 or 2028.

[fellowmartian]

It still won’t help unless the AI bubble pops. Even old fabs will continue pumping out HBM instead of DRAM as long as hyperscalers gobble it up.

[Avicebron]

This seems wildly optimistic, do you have anything to support it?

[swiftcoder]

The RAM shortage is predicated on both the huge datacenter buildout (many of which are already mired in delays, with a few even cancelled outright), and the massive memory purchase commitments various hyperscalers have made - hyperscalers who seem to be running short on cash lately...

[AnimalMuppet]

History? This isn't the first RAM shortage. When one happens, producers build more fabs. The fabs come online, the availability of memory shoots up, and the shortage goes away, usually replaced by a glut.

If you want to argue that this is different from all previous RAM shortages, you can, but the burden of proof is on you to show the difference.

[nok22kon]

there is a glut if demand stops.

this time demand doesn't stop. there is an exponential demand for tokens.