[Supermancho]

> The models get cheaper super fast. By this time next year Fable 5 will cost less than Sonnet does today.

I'm not sure that's something to rely on. I would be Fable 5 will be phased out and the bleeding edge will be priced up.

[jerf]

I don't know about everyone else, but if you told me that for the next couple of years I, and everyone else, would have only Opus 4.5, I wouldn't exactly cry about it. Especially if in the meantime it got cheaper and maybe a bit faster.

My desire for the latest and greatest continues on, but my need for it in order to get any value out of it at all is much, much smaller. The in-practice delta between all the versions since 4.5 have been much more subtle than, say, the models available a year before Opus 4.5 and Opus 4.5.

The bleeding edge is going to have to earn its price delta. They can't count on me wanting to upgrade just to get something halfway decent anymore.

[N_Lens]

The interesting point is when it becomes smart enough to completely replace 99% of knowledge workers.

[FromTheFirstIn]

Buddy it’s not even going to replace 1%

[stingraycharles]

I’m not entirely sure, it’s my understanding that later this year a lot of compute will go online with the latest hardware that will be significantly cheaper for inference.

The problem is rather, I think, that people always want to use the latest and greatest models. And that training is super expensive.

Potentially we’ll just see less new model releases.