I suspect that blood vitamin D is mainly a marker for how much outdoor exercise people are getting, and that it is the exercise rather than the D which is causal.
My life changed after I got tested for vit D and started talking supplements. I was severely deficient. I am now sufficient and everything changed for me.
In December by chance I put a pack of Vitamin D into my shopping basket. I did not think much, thought to take 1000IE but then decided that for the first week I take 3000 to catch up. Muscle pain went and control over eating improved. I did not expect any changes based on past experience with 1000 but this time I could not ignore it (age can play a role) and I stayed on 3000. Tests a month later showed I was just not deficient any-more. I continued on the regime and started having improvements in long running skin issues to the extent my dentist noticed. It may not be a miracle drug but one should not underestimate cumulative impact individual factors, age and lifestyle changes (less sun) that may change levels and demand.
I also suspect that the frequency of outdoor exercise matters even if the total duration of outdoor exercise remains the same. Subjectively, I feel much healthier when doing thirty minutes of outdoor exercise six times a week, than when doing one hour of outdoor exercise three times a week. But then of course, all the causal effects could have been caused by a different factor (say dopamine release) than vitamin D.
People who are drawing blood and trying to find some correlation between vitamin presence and health at this point are just practicing divination. The fact that it can be published in a scientific journal without any sort of RCT to back it up is palpably unscientific.
The customers of these studies are the supplement companies looking for another product to sell.
I don’t think there’s anything definitive. 400IU/day from one study is nothing if you’re deficient. 2000IU from another study is better, but even then we don’t seem to know much about absorption from these studies. For example, did it actually raise serum levels by 10ng/ml after a year, and how did THAT correlate to positive or negative health outcomes? K2 also seems to play an important symbiotic relationship with D, and seems notably absent from these studies.
Maybe this is true if you’re only considering white people. Brown people can spend a lot of time outdoors and still be deficient, especially if their ancestry is from much a much sunnier region or lifestyle than the one they’re currently living in.
It has never been established that darker people require the same amount of D as lighter. The supplement industry plays on these fearmongering to boost sales.