[rzwitserloot]

You cannot bet 50/50 on that question. Hence, you aren't actually asked to evaluate whether the answer to the questions you posted is 'yes' or 'no'. You are instead asked 'is the actual chance of it happening higher or lower than the current breakeven chance as posted on Kalshi / Polymarket'.

[Dilettante_]

Can you help me better grasp this? My intuition is thus: Sure, if I'm going at it like a proper rationalist, I'd have to do things like calculate expected value or whatever(I fully admit my lack of foundational knowledge when it comes to statistics), but at the surface the questions I feel I'm being asked is: "Is this a winning ticket?" and then "How much would you pay for a ticket set to win $1?" The latter question being obviously meaningless except for the obvious: It does not matter in the slightest, as long as I don't pay 1$ or more.

So you could see how the face odds are irrelevant to me, only my internal yes/no intuition? Obviously this is not optimized, opportunity cost etc etc, but is there a big hole in my thinking you could point me in the direction of?