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by peterfirefly 38 days ago
Remember when the world ran completely out of copper?
2 comments

First: I completely agree that extrapolating current ressource use towards a "exhaustion date" is naive, and historically things never worked out that way.

But copper price is still up by >500% since the early 2000s.

If it wasn't clear in my post, the entire point is not that we'd run out, but that it'd become economically unviable. As the supply starts to run out and/or we turn to more expensive sources, prices go up - sharply. We'll never really run out of anything - it will just become so expensive that it's no longer viable for widespread usage. Nuclear is quite sensitive to this issue because the primary, and arguably sole, argument for it is that it's cheap.
Ore is currently about 2% of the capex of a reactor. And many mines globally have lowered production because it's too cheap. Even if you 10x the price of the ore, it'll still be cheap
The world will not run completely out of copper, be we can expect much higher prices.

"Copper and lithium are major exceptions where expected mined supply from announced projects falls short of projected demand in 2035, with implied deficits of 30% for copper and 40% for lithium"

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook...

Copper prices may be higher in 2035 but I'll be astonished if lithium prices are. I expect lithium to be much cheaper by then.

Note that we kept extracting copper long after people said we would run out. We even increased production AND lowered prices.