[weird-eye-issue]

Sure but that level of confidence is what would also eventually wipe you out because gamblers are not necessarily known for proper risk management. You could win 10 bets in a row but then it would only take one bet that you had 100% conviction on for you to lose and you get wiped out

[Dilettante_]

You're sneaking in a prior assumption that people will act stupidly, and then make the argument "Well since they act stupidly they will have bad outcomes". That's like me claiming "Your startup is gonna fail, I can tell, because you'd need to be able to read and write to make it in business!"(sneaking in the prior assumption that the person in question is not in fact able to read or write)

Your strategic consideration is wise, though. 'Diversification' is one of the first things people will teach wrt investment literacy.

[weird-eye-issue]

Well my assumption that gamblers will do something stupid is not that far flung.

And regarding your comment about investment literacy yes I agree with you but just to be clear we are discussing gambling and not investing.

[Dilettante_]

>just to be clear we are discussing gambling and not investing

Where's the demarcation? The whole point of this sub-thread was "you absolutely can predict the outcome of some of these markets". If you do your due dilligence/leverage your domain knowledge to buy a thing you expect to pay dividends at a later date, how is that not investing? Are government bonds gambling in your thinking?

Your prior about people acting unwise is still sneaking in via the assertion that we are talking about gambling.

[weird-eye-issue]

Are you seriously trying to make a comparison between government bonds and prediction markets? What is wrong with you?

[Dilettante_]

What's wrong with me is I'm autistic enough to expect people to be able to follow arguments. I did not say "There are no differences between Government Bonds and Prediction Markets", what I said was "Let's find where the line between gambling and investing is, here's an example from which to pick apart the features that make gambling vs investing".

[weird-eye-issue]

> I did not say "There are no differences between Government Bonds and Prediction Markets"

I never said that you said that, so now you are just arguing with a straw man that you just created, and your lack of ability to understand that is going to make a productive conversation impossible. Good luck with your gambling.

[warmedcookie]

I don't know much about gambling but is it not common to set for yourself max bets so your pool of cash doesn't deplete like you do when buying stocks or trading options so you can leverage up or down. I know it's a little different, but there is a similar principle.

Maybe only allow people to spend 1/5 their pool of cash per bet so it never reaches zero