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by flowerthoughts 36 days ago
The alternative would be to ask both sides of the bets to record a video, and tell them to only post winning bids, but to pay out to both sides. Is that really better? Classic tactic by the bet picking gambler gurus and is impossible to confirm.

I guess Polymarket too will learn to be more subtle now.
1 comments
tecleandor 36 days ago
There's no "both sides" of the bets in this case. All the bets researched by the WSJ were fake, none of those bets was ever placed.
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flowerthoughts 35 days ago
Yes. That's not an argument against my point: they could achieve the same biased result using recordings of real bets. Be happy they (maybe) haven't yet, because that conartistry is much harder to show.

Don't trust anything anyone says about probabilities of real-world future events. We still can't even predict the weather a week in advance, despite huge computational resources being thrown at it.

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